Annual rainfall scatter and rainfall amount were not related. Now, I choose two rainfall amounts (very high and very low) to define where the “Tails” of the frequency distribution begin. This fact makes the highest and lowest annual rainfalls at Manilla less extreme than would be expected in a normal distribution. Using that measure, extremes were at their highest in the 19th century, before anthropogenic global warming began. They now have an improved smoothing procedure: a 9-point Gaussian curve. We have created our own Swimming Water Temperature Index offering a guide to water temperature and comfort levels for swimming; In October, for the nearest coastal location, the temperature of the sea averages around 23°C, that's 73° Fahrenheit. The average daily relative humidity for October is around 70%. By the 1970’s, elderly residents of Manilla would have seen rainfall increase decade by decade throughout their lives. What feels unbearably cold to one person for a swim might be fine for another. Rainfall maps and temperature maps based on recent observations; Recent observations for this site. QUICK CONNECT : The Land | Queensland Country Life ... Bundaberg Rainfall Reports. It is due to just one data item: the annual rainfall reading of 1129 mm in the year 1890, which was the highest ever. Few alive now will remember that Manilla’s rainfall really was much lower in the 1930’s.

An alternative measure of scatter in data is the Standard Deviation. September Climate History for Bundaberg with monthly averages for temperature, rainfall, wind. This post considers the Total Range within a 21-year sampling window as a measure of extremes.
Skewness: 0.268 (slightly positive).

Bundaberg daily rain summaries including extremes, records and averages as well as archived historical data. The following charts show yearly weather trends with information on monthly weather averages and extremes. September 2020 The new version is less “jumpy” due to better smoothing. If you are after long-term averages relevant to Bundaberg, Queensland, look at the tables for Bundaberg Aero or Bundaberg Post Office. Back to the prelude “Manilla’s Yearly Rainfall History”.

Inter-quartile Range measures the scatter of values that are close the middle: just the middle 50%. The first two graphs  are new versions of graphs in an earlier post, published also as an article in “The Manilla Express” (28/2/17) and in the “North West Magazine” (20/3/17). The new version uses the median value (the middle, or 50th percentile value) instead. The graph relies on the long-term Normal Distribution curve (“L-T Norm. I count the number of values that qualify as extreme by being within the tails.

It is a transform of the normal distribution with a weighted sinusoidal correction. Some of the 20 mm “bins” near the middle have less than 2% of the observations, while others have over 5%.

Times of very unreliable rainfall came in 1919 (dry), 1949 (normal) and 1958 (wet). Forward to Extremes Part III. The chart below plots the average number of days in any month that you can expect to see rain falling. I defined as “Extreme Values” those either below the 5th percentile or above the 95th percentile of the fitted Normal Distribution. The Maximum Value in 1980 was rather extreme (about 330 mm above the mean). The shoulders, each side of the “peak”, are high; The resulting pattern of heavier and lighter tails, shown above, is similar to that found by using more and less extreme values, shown in the graph copied here. This is true even for the driest month. Throughout the month of October daytime temperatures will generally reach highs of around 27°C that's about 80°F.
To get a percentage value, I divided by 21. However, the titles are changed. My claim was not well supported. Present rainfall will seem low to those who remember the 1970’s, but the 1970’s were wet times and now is normal. Also, although this is not obvious, this graph assumes that other features of the distribution of annual rainfall have not been changing, which is not true. The plot on this second graph is changed only by better smoothing. The “Standard Deviation Range” then extends from the 16th percentile to the 84th percentile. That further reduced the years that could be plotted to those from 1897 to 2002. The Total Range is equal to the sum of the two Extreme Values that are plotted.

The terrain: mostly low plateau with deserts; fertile plain in southeast. However, it also says nothing about extremes, which will lie far out in the residual 32% “tails” of the data. Historical Rainfall Data for Years 1888 to 2020 * Rain Season runs July 1 - June 30 annually.

This climate is considered to be Cfa according to the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. The collapse was was widespread, as was recognised half a century ago. Back to Extremes Part I.

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